tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25714039.post6749325631890888611..comments2023-10-26T00:17:28.411+08:00Comments on A Private Portfolio: The investor's dilemmatraineeinvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179861120801348035noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25714039.post-47552662266189475272013-02-06T08:56:32.121+08:002013-02-06T08:56:32.121+08:00@ J-D
Thanks for the informations. That would sug...@ J-D<br /><br />Thanks for the informations. That would suggest that if revaluations go to zero, a 4-6% fall in HSI aggregate earnings. Not a big deal.<br /><br />@ Super Saver<br /><br />I wish it were that easy! <br /><br />Thanks - I am looking forward to leaving the work force. Just have to make sure I keep myself busy.<br /><br />Cheers<br />traineeinvestorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25714039.post-77810017873610173822013-02-05T22:28:00.442+08:002013-02-05T22:28:00.442+08:00As Yogi Berra once said,"It's hard to mak...As Yogi Berra once said,"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future." :-) Whatever decision you make will be a good one because you've thought through the options and risk, and chosen what you believe is best.<br /><br />Good luck on your retirement journey.Super Saverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11172939501208456194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25714039.post-32601521800538331842013-02-05T19:13:11.350+08:002013-02-05T19:13:11.350+08:00I agree, but these days property co dont weight mu...I agree, but these days property co dont weight much anymore(SHK, CK, Swire, Wharf, HLP, Henderson, new world + Sino Land are ~ 10% of HSI only...) and some of this isn't even pure property (eg CK, Swire)<br />J-Dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25714039.post-67332456855137554312013-02-05T12:18:22.815+08:002013-02-05T12:18:22.815+08:00Hi J-D
I agree that the HSI is trading at a disco...Hi J-D<br /><br />I agree that the HSI is trading at a discount to historical PE (and other multiple) data and, at 11.3 x, is not at all expensive.<br /><br />However, it's worth remembering that the HSI has a reasonable weighting to property companies and the results of those companies includes gains on revaluation of properties. When the properties stop going up in value or start going down, it will have at least some effect on the earnings of the HSI as a whole. I don't know how much?<br /><br />cheers<br />traineeinvestorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25714039.post-41720498365409481422013-02-04T18:56:20.678+08:002013-02-04T18:56:20.678+08:00The current P/E of the HSI is 11.32 (04/02/3 close...The current P/E of the HSI is 11.32 (04/02/3 close). I think the historial value is 12.8. I think it's probably ok to add slightly as we go (like Bean Counter).J-Dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25714039.post-36317976300542388202013-02-04T08:54:21.103+08:002013-02-04T08:54:21.103+08:00@ bean counter
Thanks for dropping by.
Paying do...@ bean counter<br /><br />Thanks for dropping by.<br /><br />Paying down the mortgage is cetrainly a possibility but they are only costing me around 1% pa on average - and even that is tax deductable, so 0.85%. That's a pretty low cost for keeping my powder dry. Of course, I could repay some mortgage debt and then reborrow when I felt it was time to buy again but (i) I'm about to retire so will have no earned income and the banks may be reluctant to lend to me even with security and (ii) the cost will be higher (around 2% at the moment?) and (iii) the interest will not be tax deductable.<br /><br />If I think I will be leaving cash on the sidelines for a long time (2-3 years or more), it probably makes sense to repay - 0.85% is better than 0.01%. If for a shorter time, I think I am better off keeping cash and waiting for the next buying opportunity.<br /><br />Cheers<br />traineeinvestortraineeinvestorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05179861120801348035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25714039.post-25612229234968377592013-02-03T18:28:40.331+08:002013-02-03T18:28:40.331+08:00I'm having similar thoughts at the moment. I&#...I'm having similar thoughts at the moment. I've set up a small monthly investment in the hk index just to keep things ticking over, but i'm holding off on any major new portfolio additions for now.<br /><br />One option to consider (if savings rates are less than mortgage rates) may be to pay down some mortgage debt ahead of retirement?<br />Thanksbean counterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14148292729387309555noreply@blogger.com