Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Longer term currency risk

The HKMA injected HKD16 billion to defend the peg today. This is the first intervention since December 2012.

While I have no short term concerns that HKD will be repegged (people have been periodically predicting the end of the peg long before I arrived in HK more than 20 years ago), in the longer term (which could be very long term) it will either be adjusted or removed. If that were to happen in conditions like those prevailing today, the HKD would be revalued upwards and the relative value of my overseas investments would go down. As far as portfolio construction is concerned, while investing outside HK provides diversification and a closer alignment between household income and expenses, it does add to the longer term risk exposure.

Since the cost of hedging is prohibitive, this is largely a case of being aware of a potential event about which I can do nothing.

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