A dilemma is a problem that offers (usually) two choices, neither of which is particularly attractive. And this is precisely what I, as an investor, feel faced with at this time.
On the one hand, we are continuing to experience inflation. Even at around 3% pa (+/- a bit depending on where you live), the real value of money is deteriorating. With central banks continuing to print money and, in at least some places, private sector credit creation either still in, or returning to, positive territory, it would be a very brave investor who would bet against continuing inflation over the longer term. Holding cash or most of the bonds that are available to retail investors more or less guarantees that the real value (purchasing power) of my investments will shrink. I don't like the idea of holding assets that I expect to lose money on.
On the other hand (and, I am starting to sound like an economist), the price of risk assets does not generally represent good value. While the Hang Seng index is far from expensive, neither is it cheap. The same can be said for most of the other major markets. It is of come concern that there appears to be a wave of new found optimism infecting the markets. Words like "momentum" and "rotation" and references to retail investors returning to the market are popping up all over the place. I'm generally happier when the the bad news pundits are dominating the headlines. I don't like the idea of buying into a market which doesn't offer Buffet's "margin of safety" either.
Since I am feeling particularly indecisive, but recognise that with retirement only a matter of months away it is better to err on the conservative side (whatever that may be), the only things I have decided to do are (i) not to chase the market and (ii) aim to allow my cash/near cash holding to end up higher by the time I retire than it is currently. At the moment, I hold 42 months of expenses in cash/near cash. By retirement, I am now aiming for at least 50 months. This does not actually require me to sell anything - just invest a little less than the sum of the cash coming in from various sources between now and then.